Well what a year it has been, looking forward to 2012, Last year I posted some 2011 predictions, after rereading them back, it certainly was a slow year with the economy stalling any massive growth but some of them were near enough correct.
So onto the next year in 2012, for me this is a year of change from the very off. In January 2012 I start a at a new company in there Architecture team. This was a tough decision to make, but it was time to move on to pastures new I felt, I have the crave for new challenges and hurdles to jump, and lastly if I want to reach my eventual goals and aspirations I need to broaden my experience in a different industry and diversify.
As for the industry outlook in 2012, here are some small potential predictions and scenarios that may arise in a few areas of datacentre related infrastructure and technologies;
When it comes to Storage we’ve got a hard disk crisis, hard disk prices have increased by 10-15% due to natural disasters in the far east, and with the increase in cost most likely being fronted by the customer, this may mean the following scenarios arise;
- Price premium of new disks may mean it is actually more cost effective utilising tiered storage archiving technologies. This quest means the the old school on-premise archiving and optimisation toolsets in the marketplace will get reprieve for another year in what is seen as a dying marketplace,
- Price increases due to disk cost increase will have a knock on of a slowdown on new array procurement. (Or maybe pigs might fly and the markup on implementation and design of arrays may be reduced to factor in the increased pricing of disk),
- Dependent on chosen vendor, the “Big data” strategy in organisations will slowdown and be potentially put on hold,
Lots to look out for in the area of Virtualisation, we will see more push from the alternative Hypervisor vendors arise, this may only be exploratory for larger committed Vmware shops but 2012 will mark the beginning of new horizons at least,
- Microsoft finally get a bigger foot in the door over VMware, it is only a matter of time before cost becomes the biggest driver for change to alternative “Just enough” hypervisors,
- Adoption of alternative hypervisors such as KVM may well become more realistic due to 2011 price increases from VMware,
- VMware finally release a mobile hypervisor platform, whether this will be any good only time can tell, but i’d say in 2012 this will arise,
Onto the desktop that has apparently been dead for the last period of 2012, well will it be in 2012? I doubt it very much but expect to see some of the following;
- A Marketing/PR ambush over the course of the year when Microsoft release early versions ofWindows 8. It will certainly stir the pot that was filled in 2011 thats for sure with the likes of Apple and google pushing for market share.
- As with any Microsoft implementation or upgrade, Windows shops wake up from the hangover of Windows 7 implementations wondering “why did I do that” when Windows 8 is about. W8 has a bit more too it, certainly with the next gen Metro apps, was all that investment in Windows 7 upgrades really worth it?
In the area of IaaS we will certainly see more and more uptake of cloud based service delivery in organisations, this will be driven more by board level mandates to save cost (as per usual), and will also be driven by the desire to implement the same levels of service that public cloud offerings are already providing. This will mean;
- More feasibility studies on the use of open source IaaS alternatives such as Joyent, Opennebula and Openstack,
- Self service increases in adoption with more and more organisations wanting IT to be run as a business.
And on a lighter note
- Cloud will fail (again),
- A Storagebeers might actually happen in full force,
- There will be a surplus of Thin clients, monitors, printers and dodgy low end servers available for purchase from the London 2012 olympic committee,
That’s all folks